We’ve had a lot of time to think about the theory of cyclical history as posited by Strauss & Howe in their numerous books starting with Generations: The History of America’s Future. I’ve been interested in this idea since first encountering it more than 30 years ago.
Last year I (finally) read Howe’s latest (Strauss, sadly, is dead) The Fourth Turning is Here. Howe wrote it in such a way that you don’t have to read the original book, or any of the others, to understand this one. You get a complete overview of the theory and enough historical context to make it stick.
Something struck me in the latest book that didn’t strike me in the others — almost certainly because I read the others prior to the fourth turning from the “unraveling” to the “crisis.” We are now living the crisis that ends the Millennial Saeculum (1946–2033?). The crisis sweeps away the old order, and a new order takes its place leading into a new saeculum (the 80+ year cycle) based on a new set of shared values (this doesn’t mean everyone agrees).
There’s no telling what kind of order the current crisis with lead to. In the current book, Howe discusses several possible outcomes from good to terrifying depending on our point of view. I’ve lived all my life in the liberal post-war consensus — nationally and internationally. This is what will be replaced. It’s going away. We’re not returning to it. We could build something better.
Or worse. Heather Cox Richardson today takes a look at one possible replacement — a sphere-of-influence model in a white, christian nationalist country. I’ll have more to say about the National Security Strategy soon.
