More academic jargon…
Here’s the new opening paragraph of my AEJMC Conference paper (still rough):
In this essay I explore the ethical implications for journalists of the Mayer (1996, 2003) predictive model of presidential primary campaigns. I am specifically interested in press coverage of the nomination process from the candidates’ announcements to the Iowa caucuses. I accept the argument by Barger and Barney that the press has an obligation to “enable citizens, through timely access to information, to accumulate the power necessary…to control their own destinies” (2004, pg. 191). I also accept that journalists aspire to act ethically in regard to the integrity of their product and the public they serve (Kovach and Rosenstiel 2001; Merrill 1997). Recent scholarship on the effects of party election reforms in the 1970s demonstrate that the primary election process has become frontloaded (Mayer 2004). Frontloading occurs as states move primary dates forward in an effort to gain more media attention and political influence in the nomination. Frontloading has stabilized the nomination process by making it a “stacked deck” in favor of a limited set of candidates before any votes are cast (Steger 2003). Since the reforms fully took effect in 1980, the winner of the “invisible primary,” as determined by polls prior to voting, has eventually won the nomination most of the time (Mayer 1996, 2003; Gurian and Haynes, 2003). The press, however, covers the nomination process as an unstable event by creating an illusion of political drama in which several candidates may rise from the pack to win the nomination or frontrunners may stumble on political mistakes and lose the nomination (Gurian and Haynes, 2003). This illusion of drama hides from citizens the fact that the process is stable and, therefore, limits voters’ choices–hardly helping them “to control their own destinies.” By characterizing the process as unstable, I contend the press contributes to its stability; thus, the press becomes involved in limiting voter choice, a phenomenon I call the primary instability paradox.
And here is the concluding paragraph:
The empirical data from that research clearly establish two facts as articulated by the independent variables: Most of the time since 1980, the candidate who leads the last Gallup Poll before the Iowa caucuses and who has been the most effective fundraiser wins the nomination. Predictive models may surely fail, as Mayer’s did in 2004. But his data and conclusions are hardly challenged by the 2004 results. Under the current set of nomination rules and the frontloading it encourages, the master narrative of an unstable nomination campaign simply is not true. Journalistic behavior in this regard fails its own ethic of social responsibility. It also fails Merrill’s TUFF ethical system by not giving voters a truthful account of the nomination process.









