Comments on: It’s the End of the World as We Know It http://rhetorica.net/archives/6660.html Wed, 21 Jul 2010 13:07:08 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: acline http://rhetorica.net/archives/6660.html/comment-page-1#comment-5287 acline Wed, 30 Jan 2008 11:49:20 +0000 http://localhost/wpp3/?p=6660#comment-5287 V- I can honestly say I have no idea what the results so far mean :-) But, yes, it certainly could be that the narrative has moved politics to a degree (and/or the public). I think I'll update this entry to reflect your idea, which, correctly I think, challenges my sweeping generalization in #2. V- I can honestly say I have no idea what the results so far mean :-) But, yes, it certainly could be that the narrative has moved politics to a degree (and/or the public). I think I’ll update this entry to reflect your idea, which, correctly I think, challenges my sweeping generalization in #2.

]]> By: Vardibidian http://rhetorica.net/archives/6660.html/comment-page-1#comment-5286 Vardibidian Wed, 30 Jan 2008 10:05:51 +0000 http://localhost/wpp3/?p=6660#comment-5286 Well, now, I think #2 is a bit unfair, isn't it? How about #2: Campaigns have changed <i>enough</i> toward the master narrative that the Mayer Model is no longer reliable. I wonder if one of the issues is timing; we talk about how the primaries are earlier, and are more compressed. The <I>last national Gallup poll before the Iowa caucus</i> may not be the right one, these days. Still, if what we learned from the Mayer Model is that people do not, generally, change their preferred candidate because of Momentum (the results of the early primaries), I think there's little reason this time to think that they do. Mayor Giuliani's candidacy was dying well before the Iowa caucus. Senator Clinton's candidacy still seems to be stable, not certain of course, but her supporters don't seem to be deserting her, either. And it isn't entirely relevant, but David S. Bernstein (of the Boston Phoenix) has been consistently predicting that Senator McCain would win the nomination, and dismissing the ups and downs of polls and whatnot as imaginary narrative. The way that he put it to me is that (and I'm paraphrasing slightly) the Republicans pick Bob Dole, not Jack Kemp. If there's a candidate running who was the second-place candidate last time, that's who they will nominate. I think there's more to the Bernstein Model than that, but as a prediction, he certainly seems to have been doing well. He also predicted the week before the 1996 Iowa Caucuses that John Kerry would be the nominee; I don't know what his method was for that. Thanks, -V. Well, now, I think #2 is a bit unfair, isn’t it? How about #2: Campaigns have changed enough toward the master narrative that the Mayer Model is no longer reliable.

I wonder if one of the issues is timing; we talk about how the primaries are earlier, and are more compressed. The last national Gallup poll before the Iowa caucus may not be the right one, these days.

Still, if what we learned from the Mayer Model is that people do not, generally, change their preferred candidate because of Momentum (the results of the early primaries), I think there’s little reason this time to think that they do. Mayor Giuliani’s candidacy was dying well before the Iowa caucus. Senator Clinton’s candidacy still seems to be stable, not certain of course, but her supporters don’t seem to be deserting her, either.

And it isn’t entirely relevant, but David S. Bernstein (of the Boston Phoenix) has been consistently predicting that Senator McCain would win the nomination, and dismissing the ups and downs of polls and whatnot as imaginary narrative. The way that he put it to me is that (and I’m paraphrasing slightly) the Republicans pick Bob Dole, not Jack Kemp. If there’s a candidate running who was the second-place candidate last time, that’s who they will nominate. I think there’s more to the Bernstein Model than that, but as a prediction, he certainly seems to have been doing well. He also predicted the week before the 1996 Iowa Caucuses that John Kerry would be the nominee; I don’t know what his method was for that.

Thanks,
-V.

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