January 2, 2008

Who Will Win in Iowa? Who Cares?

Now’s a good time to review my blog essay about the press-politics of the pre-primary nomination process. For an academic treatment of the same topic, check out my essay in The Forum. And I recently declared the nominations over.

I did not make this prediction because I want to be right or because I want to prove how smart I am. It would be a good thing for all of us if the Mayer predictive model fails for both parties in 2008 (if for no other reason than we’d all be spared a Clinton v. Giuliani race). I’m not actually making any prediction at all; I’m just telling you want the model says will happen.

You should check out those links to discover why you should care.

If the model holds, who wins Iowa is meaningless. Who wins any particular primary is meaningless. The American people will vote according to what the national polls say they will do. I cannot find a national Gallup poll taken within the last three weeks, but the trend in other polls seems clear for Democrats but somewhat less clear Republicans.



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