: Playing for peanuts…
Peanuts, that’s what Iowa and New Hampshire are. Now the state of Missouri, that’s big-time by comparison. John Kerry won New Hampshire and all its delegates, which number in the teens (it hardly seems worth remembering the actual figure). Missouri offers 74 delegates.
We’ll get some obnoxious commercials this week before our primary. But there’s little chance the candidates will visit for long if at all. Why?
1- Missouri needs some good spin. Who will stand up and make the argument for Missouri as an important primary state? A nameless (to me) pundit tried to make the argument last night during MSNBC’s primary coverage. The big names ignored him. Ron Reagan even spoke up for Missouri. But the master narratives are fixed. South Carolina represents The South. Missouri just looks “like America,” as Reagan put it. Ho-hum.
2- Missouri has an odd media situation. Our media slop over into neighboring states, thus confusing who the audience is. When you make a media buy in Kansas City, are you buying Kansas or Missouri? In St. Louis, is it Missouri or Illinois? These are important questions because it’s not a good thing to assume our issues are the same as those in neighboring states. We’d be better off in this regard if Jefferson City was exactly that–a city rather than a town with an attitude.
Iowa and New Hampshire are important because the news media tell us that they are and we accept it (wins there certainly are not predictive with a high degree of probability). No, wait, it’s because these contests are first and being first is important. Nope. Sorry. That evaluation is an illusion. I say this because the data show that primaries are not so much individual races (in which “first place” is important) as they are one big election extended over time.
UPDATE (12:30 p.m.): I forgot to mention the Gephardt factor. Now that he’s out, attention to Missouri goes up (a little). Here’s a rundown of the candidates’ schedules so far.
UPDATE (4:34 p.m.): In his comment to this post, JSteele correctly points out that I incorrectly said that Kerry won all the New Hampshire delegates.
UPDATE (6:15 p.m.): This, from The American Prospect:
Nonetheless, South Carolina isn’t Kerry’s top priority Wednesday. Instead, the senator breaks straight for Missouri (74), which is February 3’s most important (delegate-wise), and most ignored, state. Originally pegged as territory friendly to Dick Gephardt, not one candidate has bought TV time here — not surprising seeing as it’s too expensive for the limited exposure — but Kerry has $1.5 million to burn on ads this week, so stay tuned. During his St. Louis visit, Kerry also anticipates endorsements from former Senators Jean Carnahan and Tom Eagleton. Not to be outdone, Edwards will come for a visit later on Wednesday, and he’ll eventually hit four cities stretching all the way from the Gateway Arch to Kansas City. Dean, Clark, and Joe Lieberman might visit later this week.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but Kerry didn’t get all of the NH delegates, he received 13 while Dean left with 9. Overall, Dean has 19 more delegates than Kerry (113 to 94) — a little nugget of information that the media seems to ignore.
Based on your article, I assume you watched most of the coverage and analysis on MSNBC — what did you think about Matthews (and the panels) response to Dean’s speech? It seemed they were a little blown away, in fact, later in the show when they replayed a small segment about civil rights and came back to the panel, they were all (get ready for it) speechless!! The sad thing of course is they all said “that’s the first time I’ve seen Dean so passionate”. The truth, of course, is that speech has been part of the Dean stump for at least several weeks. I watch CSPAN off-and-on and I’ve seen variations of it several times.
For the record: Yes, I am a Dean supporter, until last night I was mostly undecided (still haven’t given them my credit card though).
J- Yes, that’s right re: the delegate count from New Hampshire. My entry is “poorly worded.”
I thought Dean did a good job. I thought the commentary was insipid.
I live in Arizona (55 delegates). Our local polls indicate that 50% of the democrats are undecided. 50%!!! Why isn’t AZ the big battleground?!? Clark is out here (he’s led the polls by a few points for months) and Dean is coming to a “massive” rally on Saturday.
Arizona is the home of independant-minded John McCain, I’d think that this could be an easy win for any candidate willing to spend the money — perhaps with a fiscally conservative message, and a strong “state’s rights” ideology (i.e. Dean).
I have a question on your #2. How is the Missouri media situation more odd than Iowa? On the one side of Iowa you have the Quad Cities and on the other side you have Omaha/Council Bluffs. What issues bind Iowa-Illinois-Nebraska? Oops, forgot the important Lamoni/Eagleville connection!
JSteele - according to some reports, Dean has already blown his wad (so to speak) and staffers were asked to forego salary for a couple of weeks - maybe it’s time to break out the ol’ credit card! I envy you and Doc for your place in the primary circus - by the time it arrives in IL, I’m afraid the show will be over. BTW, I’m glad you’ve finally surfaced, I’ve missed your comments.
Rebecca…Des Moines sits in the middle of the state. While it’s true that some towns in Iowa slop over, in Missouri ALL the major cities do.
As far as being over, it’s not looking good for Dean right now that’s for sure
But, remember, I have not asserted my prediction based on mere punditry. I asserted it based on hard data and excellent analysis (by Mayer) of that data. And I have shown how the model may be challenged. I “win” either way 
I’ll take 94 percent probability to Las Vegas any day
Rebecca: I’ve been lurking — it’s just that Dr. Cline’s been so high-brow lately, I didn’t want to interrupt the intellectual brain fest!!
Yes, i’ve been reading the reports of Dean’s demise financially. His big rally in Phoenix has been cancelled, he’ll go to one of Arizona’s bastions of liberalism (and Hispanic voters) in Tucson instead.
J - don’t hang back - embrace my philosophy - “Dare to be Stupid”! (Since brain-cells are dying - I can’t remember which techno-band did this).