A Quinnipac University poll shows Howard Dean with a 9-point lead over John Kerry.
What should the other Democrats do now?
The Mayer predictive model of primary campaigns will more than likely hold for 2004, so the other candidates may be better off dropping out and supporting Dean.
There’s an outside chance that Dean will shoot himself in the foot by shooting off his mouth. I don’t see him committing a monumental act of social stupidity such as Gary Hart’s shenaigans in 1988–the only anomaly in the Mayer model.
Or, the other Democrats may suppose that negative attacks will bring Dean down. I don’t see this happening. The public (those paying attention, anyway) already know the common lines of attack. Is there something more? I wonder.
Or, they might consider running vigorous, policy-centered campaigns with the goal of educating/persuading voters and positively effecting a Democratic win in November 2004.
What are the other candidates’ goals?
Perhaps one will be asked to be vice president. Who might that be? Perhaps one who has (for the most part) resisted attacking, e.g. Wesley Clark.
I found Dean Esmay’s estimation of Dean cogent and interesting (and not just because he linked to me
UPDATE (2:40 p.m.): So at least one pundit believes in the Mayer model, whether he understands it or not. William Saletan’s problem with Gore’s endorsement only makes sense if Mayer is correct. Further, it seems his charge is a bit over-wrought–seeing as how voters still get to vote. That they consistently confirm or validate the polls is far more the fault of shallow journalism than political intrigue.