: 9 points and counting…
A Quinnipac University poll shows Howard Dean with a 9-point lead over John Kerry.
What should the other Democrats do now?
The Mayer predictive model of primary campaigns will more than likely hold for 2004, so the other candidates may be better off dropping out and supporting Dean.
There’s an outside chance that Dean will shoot himself in the foot by shooting off his mouth. I don’t see him committing a monumental act of social stupidity such as Gary Hart’s shenaigans in 1988–the only anomaly in the Mayer model.
Or, the other Democrats may suppose that negative attacks will bring Dean down. I don’t see this happening. The public (those paying attention, anyway) already know the common lines of attack. Is there something more? I wonder.
Or, they might consider running vigorous, policy-centered campaigns with the goal of educating/persuading voters and positively effecting a Democratic win in November 2004.
What are the other candidates’ goals?
Perhaps one will be asked to be vice president. Who might that be? Perhaps one who has (for the most part) resisted attacking, e.g. Wesley Clark.
I found Dean Esmay’s estimation of Dean cogent and interesting (and not just because he linked to me 
UPDATE (2:40 p.m.): So at least one pundit believes in the Mayer model, whether he understands it or not. William Saletan’s problem with Gore’s endorsement only makes sense if Mayer is correct. Further, it seems his charge is a bit over-wrought–seeing as how voters still get to vote. That they consistently confirm or validate the polls is far more the fault of shallow journalism than political intrigue.
Do you know if the margin has been this close in other races that the Mayer predictive model is based on? Do you think the Mayer model is in play as long as the frontrunner beats the margin of error?
I miss reading a “gut-reaction commentary” from you on the last debate. I was very happy about Kucinich calling attention to the press control over the political discourse. ABC suddenly withdrew its “embedded” reporter from his campain yesterday. (As well as the Sharpton and Mosley-Braun campaigns)
PS Happy belated birthday.
Leigh
Leigh…good question. I’m working from the data provided by Mayer in the article I cite in my essay. He does not give that detail. I assume that a MoE lead is necessary because anything within the MoE is a tie.
Sadly, I missed the last debate. Family fun comes first
I agree with Leigh—your post-debate critiques have been excellent and unique. Also, IMHO, one of the best features of Rhetorica is your essay on horse-race journalism. But why not put this type of analysis on the front page (?), using current articles, of course, instead of just a link to an old essay?
Rebecca…I’m sorry I missed the debate, and I’m glad you are enjoying my experiential analyses. I enjoy writing them. I’ll post the transcript on PCR2004 soon.
That’s an interesting suggestion about putting those essay links on the blog. I may do that.
I do plan to do more short critiques of news stories as we get into the primary season. And I need to add some more speeches to PCR.