October 17, 2003
: Who, me?…
Howard Dean is not the front runner in the campaign. There is no front runner. If he wants the nomination, however, he’d better be the clear front runner (according to the national polls) before the Iowa caucuses.
That means he must claim to be the front runner and embrace the insider status it confers. To do otherwise is not sound logic based on what we know from the best predictive model of presidential primary elections: The “winner” of the last national Gallup poll before Iowa wins the nomination.
Posted by acline | October 17, 2003 | Posted in: Uncategorized | Comments (2)
I’m confused. When one candidate has the most supporters and raises almost three times that of his nearest competitor, and leads in many polls, including Iowa, NH and a couple of national ones, how can you say this person is not the frontrunner? Dean is leading in IA, NH, raised 15 million in contributions averaging $74 (you backfigure the number of supporters that represents) and he’s CLEARLY the frontrunner. Clark is charging in and may gain ground, but there’s no disputing who is in front at the moment (unless, of course, you’re working for another candidate…!)
Dear Confused:
Read the link to my essay on the press-politics of primary campaigns.
And, I do not work for any candidate…although I’m for hire