: Dean gaining in the national polls…
Dean is gaining ground in the polls that count–the national polls. A USA/TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll puts Dean in second place, tied with Dick Gephardt.
Despite the talk in academic circles of the predictive power of Professor William Mayer’s primary election model, the press, pundits, and bloggers continue to focus on individual state polls. For example, Kos says “national polls are useless as predicters of electoral success.” If he has better data than Prof. Mayer, I’d like to see it. And PoliticalWire repeats this assertion saying Kos “makes a good point.” How so?
If the Mayer predictive model holds, and I see no reason at this moment that it should not, the winner of the last Gallup poll before the Iowa caucuses will win the nomination. You may read more about it in my essay on the press-politics of the primary process.
A key to why the national polls are important involves understanding a proper sequence of cause and effect. According to Paul-Henri Gurian and Audrey A. Haynes, of the University of Georgia (Political Science & Politics, Vol. 36, No. 2 April 2003), this intuitive assertion applies: In primary elections, lacking party cues and in-depth policy information, voters choose based on political viability (i.e. who is electable) and name recognition. These characteristics precede the state primaries. While any given candidate may be leading in any given state, over the course of the primary season it is the candidate that is well-known nationally that wins the nomination.
Dean Surges In National Poll
A USA Today/CNN/Gallup nationwide poll shows that in 10 days, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) “has climbed from fourth place to a tie for second,” passing Sen. John Kerry. The poll showed Sen. Joseph Lieberman at 18 percent, Dean and Rep. Richard G…