July 2, 2003
: Thickening plot, part 2…
For an excellent example of the thickening plot, and the underlying theme that journalists are missing, read Dan Balz’ analysis of Howard Dean’s status as a “top-tier” candidate.
UPDATE (9:55 a.m.): Ron Brownstein says of the Democrats’ 2nd-quarter fundraising: “The result is a contest both fluid and opaque in which the hierarchy of the candidates is unstable and the terms of debate among them still largely unsettled.” Brownstein should consider the primary instability paradox.
Posted by acline | July 2, 2003 | Posted in: Uncategorized |
The latest Dean TV commercial here at the tip of the spear of presidential politics shows him still in front of the same barn and tractor (not a John Deere) wearing the same light blue button down oxford shirt (sorry - girls notice this stuff!) and his second message is Bush - BAD; other Democrats -WEENIES; vote for me and I’ll have a foreign policy based on American values. I have talked to many people and I have yet to find one who can define what “a foreign policy based on American values” means. I saw today that Dean is in favor of sending troops to Liberia - maybe he means it’s OK to fight to defend others but not ourselves. Who knows????
Rebecca…if you’re looking for deep meaning in a political ad you’re looking in the wrong place
In fact, I’d say that a competent media professional shouldn’t allow any complex message to creep in–except what we consumers can deconstruct after the fact 
Thanks for keeping me posted on the ads. I find political ads very amusing. That he’s using the same set and clothes is a real hoot!
This is something I find very disconcerting - some of the right blogs are encouraging donating to the Dean campaign-because he is unelectable-some of them are your blogroll.Is this right?
By right, I mean correct.
I find it rather amusing because the kind of prognosticating this suggests is simply silly. No one knows who will be electable more than a year from now. And anyone who claims such knowledge is a good candidate for vacuous TV punditry.
If, however, what they’re doing is using some hard data to make a calculated guess, this silly scheme could have some impact. Recall the Mayer predictive model. Dean is in single digits. Effective fundraising keeps the press talking about him as a top-tier candidate despite the more telling poll numbers. If Dean’s polls don’t move, then this tactic could send the nomination into disarray because the leaders could be bunched up in teens with the press crowing about an effective insurgent.
But, no one knows where Dean’s polls are going and when they’re going there. So, again, this seems like a lot of nonsense to me.
Re: my blogroll…Yes, I try to keep a balance left and right (although I’m aware that my blogroll is rather decidedly left/libertarian). I think it’s important for me to represent, however imperfectly, a wide range of thought…even if that thought is occasionally silly (and I certainly fall into that category now and then).