: The plot thickens…
“I’m very mindful of what happened to John Edwards. You all created him, and then you all cut his legs out from under him.” –Howard Dean, press critic
Political campaigns are certainly dramatic events. But the unmediated drama is much like that of baseball: long periods of preparation and mental tension punctuated, fleetingly, by action. Journalism doesn’t like long periods of inaction because it is structurally biased in favor of sustained, action-packed drama.
To help create sustained drama in a political campaign, the press seeks dark-horse candidates to promote as alternatives to establishment candidates. Ambitious politicians oblige by running long-shot campaigns. Early coverage of these candidates is usually favorable. Once the dark-horse starts gaining on the leaders, one dramatic goal has been achieved and another must take its place. The plot must thicken.
Howard Kurtz examines how this dramatic thickening affects the Dean campaign.
Kurtz, however, cannot see past same dramatic narrative of which he is a part. The evolving master narrative now says that Howard Dean is a top-tier candidate. After all, didn’t Joe Klein and Howard Fineman tell us this would happen? Joe Lieberman–Mr. Establishment–has faltered. Now the race is really getting interesting–action-packed–as we enter the first turn.
The problem with all of this is that the data, as analyzed by people without a political stake in the outcome, demonstrates something quite different. Dean may certainly become a top-tier candidate. Lieberman may certainly fall. Second-quarter fundraising figures are certainly important. But the real race for the nomination happens in the national polls. Lieberman still leads. Dean has yet to sniff double digits.
