May 28, 2003
: How important is Iowa?…
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack handicaps the presidential race. He says the top contenders are Dick Gephardt, John Kerry, and Howard Dean. What this opinion indicates is the Governor’s inflated opinion of the Iowa caucuses. The winner is meaningless if Prof. William G. Mayer’s predictive model holds for 2004.
The professor demonstrated that nominations are won by the leader of the last (Gallup) poll before the Iowa caucuses. And, in 7 of the last 10 contested nominations, the winner was leading in the polls a year before the caucuses.
While we may certainly see shifts in the polls over the next 8 months, Vilsack’s prediction, based on the importance of Iowa, may be a case of wishful thinking (see also my essay on the pre-primary process).
Posted by acline | May 28, 2003 | Posted in: Uncategorized |
