: The choice is theirs…
Prof. William G. Mayer’s predictive model for nomination campaigns demonstrates that, since 1980, the leader of the last (Gallup) poll before the Iowa caucuses usually wins the nomination. Mayer draws several conclusions about what this means for the primary process.
What interests me, however, is what this model suggests about the pre-primary process in which the nominees are essentially chosen. If the winners are known before the primaries, then some other process and some other people are involved in the selection.
My conclusion (theory): The nominees for President of the United States are chosen largely by the press and voters’ reactions to the press. (I will continue to refine this statement. It merely alludes to much that has been discussed so far in this series.)
That’s not a role the press seeks. Instead, the structure of the nomination process and the structural biases of journalism create a process by which the press essentially chooses who will win the nomination. Voters in the primaries merely rubber stamp the choice.
Here’s how it works:
- During the course of normal political reporting following an election cycle, the press begins speculating who might run four years hence.
- As politicians announce their candidacies, the press makes evaluations of viability–most often based on name recognition, current political status, and fundraising ability.
- Master narratives lock candidates into set roles.
- Reporting informs voters about these roles; polls then confirm the reporting.
Mayer suggested that campaign strategy doesn’t matter much during the primary process. I would suggest that campaign strategy is most important now.
The ultimate test of any theory is its ability to predict. So let’s put mine to the test. I have begun gathering data for this project, and I will periodically report what I discover on Rhetorica.
If Mayer and I are correct, then Joe Lieberman, John Kerry, and Richard Gephardt will show much better fundraising figures at the next reporting. Edwards will begin to fade because his national poll numbers are low. Dean, sitting in fifth place, may gain ground if his campaign strategy interests voters, but at this point, considering the Mayer’s model, his candidacy appears to be a hopeless long shot.
When this series concludes (Monday): What all of this means for the press and the voters.
In this series:
Who wins and when…
Long, hot summer…
The Search for drama…
Stable process = lack of choice…
Poll position is crucial…
A good story…
Writing the plot…
Primary instability paradox…
