: Strategic fallacy…
After discussing the fallacies with my students, I always ask: “Now, what else are they?” For a few moments, most of them stare blankly trying to figure out what the heck I’m asking. Eventually, a timid voice will ask: “tools?”
Good answer!
Howard Dean yesterday made strategic use of the fallacy of affirming the consequent when he said: “Two and half million jobs in two and half years. If we re-elect this president, we’ll be in a depression. That’s 8 million jobs in eight years.”
Many fallacies of reasoning have the feel of a syllogism. But the breakdown is easy to see in this example. There is no logical connection between jobs lost (no citation or necessary cause given) and hypothetical future losses. And there is no logical connection between a Bush re-election (hypothetical) and 8 million lost jobs (affirmed by the hypothetical re-election).
Now there are plenty of emotional connections here. This is pathos. And among the three artistic proofs, pathos–the appeal to emotion–is in many cases a stronger appeal than to logic or character (logos and ethos). What’s interesting about Dean’s fallacy is that he’s given his pathos the sound of logos.
Okay, so is this a “mistake”? That’s difficult to answer. What is Dean’s purpose? I think he makes that clear in this statement: “If you make me the Democratic nominee, I’ll make you proud to be a Democrat again.” Conventional wisdom says that nominations are won on the wings. As of the last poll, he’s running fourth. The race is over after the last poll before the Iowa caucuses. Time to move hearts if not minds.
UPDATE (10:15 a.m.): The AP considers the conventional wisdom.
