January 3, 2008
The Last Gallup Poll Before the Iowa Caucuses
Click here and make note of the results. If they Mayer model holds, Clinton and Giuliani will be the nominees.
Again: Prediction for the sake of being correct is NOT the point here. Academics attempt predictions in order test hypotheses and develop theories. The point of this is to understand how the world works and why it works the way it does.
Even if the Mayer model fails in 2008, it has told us interesting and disturbing things about the nomination process since 1980. My contention is simply this: The press needs to take this model into account and do what it can to mitigate it’s contribution to making the model work.
Posted by acline | January 3, 2008 | Posted in: Journalism |
