Back to work on my essay…
When last I wrote about the Primary Instability Paradox, Howard Dean had secured the two variables (money raised and a lead the last poll before Iowa) necessary for the nomination, according the Mayer predictive model. I sent Dr. William Mayer e-mail recently to gather some more data for my essay for the AEJMC Conference, and he alerted me to an essay he wrote for The Forum, published in the late fall of 2003, “saying that Dean was much less well-positioned than a lot of the pundits were claiming, and that relative to previous so-called front-runners, his poll standings were very unimpressive.”
Further, I’m reading his recent book “The Front-loading Problem in Presidential Nominations.”
Re: Variable #1 the last Gallup Poll before the Iowa (published 13 January 2003):
Dean 26%
Clark 20%
Lieberman 9%
Kerry 9%
Gephardt 7%
Edwards 7%
Braun 4%
Sharpton 3%
Kucinich 1%
None/no opinion 14%
