: The polls they be achangin’…
Steve Kraske of The Kansas City Star says: “Howard Dean? Stick a fork in him.”
How does he know this? Why, it’s obvious. Except that tracking polls seem to indicate that the race in New Hampshire is getting close now.
Does the race in New Hampshire matter in terms of the national race for the nomination, i.e. the primaries considered in the aggregate? The data say it’s not important. But the simple fact of the matter is this: Despite our gut feelings, or political savvy, or even highly accurate academic models, we simply do not know what’s going to happen with 100 percent certainty (the Mayer model achieves about a 94 percent probability). I’d like to see a little more humility and a little less certainty among the pundit corps. (Can one be a pundit and not be certain? Hmmmm…)
I mean, won’t the fork stickers feel a little silly if their self assuredness turns out to be, shall we say, less than correct?
Yeah, right.
I believe the 2004 primary race offers a mighty challenge to the Mayer model. For example, a significant difference exists in this cycle that may alter the probability: the use of the internet to create grassroots support and raise funds. In the early going this appeared to be very effective, allowing Dean to eclipse the man that the Mayer model suggests should have been the front-runner: Joe Lieberman.
But will this internet model sustain Dean throughout the primary process? You may find someone willing to give you a positive answer to that question. I cannot. Wait and see.
