: What national polls mean…
This latest national CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of candidate preference of registered or “leaning” Democrats puts Joe Lieberman on top. The low sample number (n=403), however, contributes to a large margin of error (+/-5). About the only thing to be learned here is that the top three remain the top three.
When Hillary Clinton and Al Gore are not a factor, Lieberman continues to lead the national polls. He trails in Iowa.
Which poll matters? If recent trends hold (re: my essay on the press-politics of primary campaigns), it is the leader of the last national (Gallup) poll before the Iowa caucuses that wins the nomination. The state polls are not nearly as important in predicting the outcome (although they may contribute to long-term viability over the crucial pre-primary campaign). Claims that some front runners are fading may be premature if based on state polls.
Joe Lieberman 20
John Kerry 17
Dick Gephardt 14
Al Sharpton 7
John Edwards 6
Howard Dean 5
Bob Graham 4
Carol Moseley Braun 4
Dennis Kucinich 2
Other 1
No one 5
No opinion 15
Been meaning to comment for a while that the project-management implications of the Mayer model are pretty astounding — namely, that all the hard work of reaching the public is in the latter half of the year before the election, and must occur nationwide, not just in the high-profile caucus/primary states; and that in turn the hard work of setting up an effective nationwide organization (presumably including key fundraising efforts) is in the first half of the year before the election.
That’s a long way from a Labor-Day-to-Election-Day campaign, but it’s also a long way from the first-quarter-of-the-election-year campaign portrayed in most of the media. The grist for the next “Primary Colors” is happening now, not 8 months from now.
Yes…it’s stunning data. Mayer ctitiques the primary process following the McGovern-Frazer reforms. I’m taking it a step further. It will be very interesting to see if his contentions, and mine, hold true for 2004.
Democratic Primary Analyses
People often say our politics are radically different from what they used to be. When I read Andrew Cline, I often think maybe things haven’t…