: Long, hot summer…
According to a FOX News poll, the top three Democrats contending for the nomination are: Joe Lieberman (19%), Dick Gephardt (14%), and John Kerry (12%). Everyone else is pulling up the rear in single digits. Some may argue this is the order of finish in the recent debate in South Carolina, although I gave Gephardt the edge.
If Prof. William G. Mayer’s predictive model is correct, then this poll, and others to follow, are far more important than most people understand. His model says that the leader of the last poll before the Iowa caucuses wins the nomination. Fundraising plays an important part in the nomination, but it is not as important as perceived popularity.
One wonders what information respondents are using to make up their minds. Very little press coverage of a political campaign focuses on the creation, implementation, and critique of policy. At this point it’s a popularity contest based on name recognition and image. Mayer’s model suggests that the contest will be over long before we hear much about policy.
(Don’t be fooled by coverage of the dueling healthcare plans, for example. Very little reporting of Gephardt’s plan, or the one Dean is about to propose, covers anything more than the surface features.)
Because most Americans get their news from TV, the nomination will go to the candidate who does the best job of creating a pleasing TV image while avoiding the ire of the press. Winning the nomination, which means winning this summer’s popularity contest, means employing good kairos.
In this series:
Who wins and when…
